三哥亲笔信

靖博 阅读:755 2018-02-11 13:14:07 评论:0

Thirty minutes. That’s about how long it would take a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched from North Korea to reach Los Angeles.

About which the president has tweeted, simply, “It won’t happen!” --- The Atlantic

昨天韩国冬奥会出了条爆炸性新闻——三哥托金与正邀请文在寅赴平壤进行南北韩高峰会议,并附亲笔信。这个消息超出了所有人的预料。

据CNN称,Moon responded to the invitation by suggesting the two countries "should accomplish this by creating the right conditions," adding that talks between North Korea and the United States were also needed, and requested that North Korea be more active in talking with the US, according to Kim Eui-kyeom.

美国韩国的总统智库该忙活起来了,要不要赴平壤这个鸿门宴呢?我们拭目以待韩国的决定。

金与正是三哥的亲妹妹,现任朝鲜中央宣传部长,此次带队赴韩参加冬奥会,是南北韩战争以来踏上韩国领土的最高朝鲜领导人。

韩国的最终决定将主要取决于美国的表态。美国近日刚提醒韩国不要中了朝鲜的糖衣炮弹。据BBC称,The Trump administration is cautious of Seoul falling for North Korea's charm offensive during the Winter Olympics, which are taking place amid tension over Pyongyang's nuclear programme.

上周五冬奥会开幕式上美国副总统Mike Pence与座位临近的金与正互不理会的照片广为流传。

Mike Pence周六发布twitter称the US would not "allow the propaganda charade by the North Korean regime to go unchallenged on the world stage".

下图为朝鲜啦啦队抵韩

下图为朝鲜啦啦队在欢迎宴会上

现在的问题是:

1. What does San Ge want from S Korea?

2. Will the US allow Moon to go to Pyong Yang?

3. What will the US do if Moon decides to go?

4. Is San Ge actually winking at the US with his hand-written invitation to Moon?

这几天最头疼的人只怕是文在寅了。

65年来从北方传来的最惊人的消息突然到了,但是美国已经不高兴了。

大西洋杂志(The Atlantic)上有篇文章,说美国面临四个对朝鲜的宏观战略方向:

1. Prevention (指preventive military strike),全面军事打击,一劳永逸摧毁之。

2. Turning the screws: 有限常规军事打击,主要通过空中优势和海军封锁,不谋求消除其政权。

3. Decapitation:斩首行动,主要通过暗杀手段。

4. Acceptance: 接受朝鲜拥核事实。

我不同意这篇文章的观点。

以上1-3其实算一个方向,4已超越美国战略底线,不可能。

在我看来,此次冬奥会前一个月内三哥的表现及派三姐亲赴赛场并邀文访朝,旨在离间美韩,背后动机是美国的经济制裁已生效。美国智库为什么不能沿着这个方向考虑呢?

按照《三十六计》的理论,三哥此举可算作三十六计第六套“败战计”中的一计(败战计包括美人计、空城计、反间计、苦肉计、连环计和走为上六计),以反间计离隙美韩,一则为己方赢得时间,获得休整期,二则以韩国拖延并改变美国之军事打击意图。此谓高明之举。

不知川爷在想什么。

大西洋杂志提出的以上选项4之所以不成立,在于国际关系理论中有一个audience cost(受众成本)的概念,即一国在对敌国发出威胁后,又退却,或未能实施威胁行动,则其民众和国内各派力量会对其政治领袖合力产生惩戒后果或不利于选举及施政的负面影响。

Audience cost概念由James D. Fearon首先提出。

Jessica Weeks (2008)的一篇文章中提出,一国领导人的行为产生国内政治成本(受众成本)的决定因素主要有三个:

1. the domestic political audience has the means and measures to punish the leader.

2. The domestic actors view backing down after having made a threat as worse than conceding without having made a threat in the first place.

3. The outsiders must be able to observe the possibility of domestic sanctions for backing down.

可见,川普总统之前的rhetoric已经产生了巨大的受众成本,用另一个理论看,实则是被动地采取了tying-hands策略,如今已无退路。

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